Review of 2023 and Early 2024
Despite the significant difficulties caused by heavy rains at the beginning of the year, the season overall was positive. Initially, there were productivity losses due to diseases from excessive moisture, but ultimately, higher yields than in previous years and good fruit quality were achieved up to week 46. This was beneficial for both producers and the market as a whole.
The winter in various parts of Europe was, as in recent years, very unpredictable. The most notable factors included:
- Milder temperatures and relatively little rain in the fall
- A December that was warmer on average than in previous years
- An extremely cold January
- A February that started with warm temperatures and later cooled down
- A mild but rainy March, fortunately less rainy than the previous year
Impact for 2024
These climatic conditions have the following impacts in the main growing regions:
In Spain, stronger and healthier shoots were observed after pruning. Despite similar pruning times as last year, the plants, especially the early varieties like Itum 15 and Sugraone, responded much better. Therefore, we expect a slightly earlier season with similar quantities as last year. Some of our producers even mention a possible increase in quantities, which needs to be analyzed in the coming weeks by variety and growing region.
Italy experienced a combination of early cultivation and lower productivity in early varieties. The March rains significantly affected the productivity of producers. Additionally, the timing of bud breaking in various regions coincided with a severe cold spell and lack of light, which hampered normal plant growth.
In Greece, there were slight delays and significant productivity losses in early and possibly also mid-late varieties. A major factor is the lack of winter rain, which may lead to a smaller harvest but with a focus on quality and size.
Seeded Varieties
There are significantly lower stocks of seeded varieties, which, as predicted, have developed into a niche market. The remaining producers of seeded varieties are focusing on high-quality products, distancing themselves from the discount segment.
Market Outlook from Week 30
Following an overseas campaign with record consumption in weeks 12 to 18, similar problems to those in Europe were observed in Egypt. Particularly affected were the mid-late varieties like Sugraone. Early white varieties saw a decline of about 10-15%, while colored varieties have not been affected so far.
It is very likely that in weeks 28-29, there will be a supply gap for seedless white grapes. Although Spain expects a slightly larger harvest of early varieties, prices at the beginning of the season are expected to be significantly higher than in previous years, as Spain plays a limited role in the total volume of the European market (Italy approx. 70%, Spain 20%, and Greece 10%).
We believe that the mid-season will be crucial. According to our information, an overall lower but more concentrated production season is expected compared to last year. Since most harvests start early, the season could also end early. Lower productivity in Italy for early varieties and good prospects for mid-late varieties could lead to a very compressed season in August, depending on storage capabilities.
June 2024